"Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true!"
-Homer J. Simpson

Thursday, October 04, 2007

Saskatchewan Election Predictions - Wrap Up

I made a series of 5 posts examining each of the 58 constituencies in the province of Saskatchewan and my analysis on the outcome of the next provincial election.

Part 1 - The South

Sask Party: 9
NDP: 2

Part 2 - Regina

NDP: 10
SP: 0
Too Close: 1

Part 3 - Central Saskatchewan

NDP: 0
SP: 10
Too Close: 2

Part 4 - Saskatoon

NDP: 7
SP: 2
Too Close: 3

Part 5 - The North

NDP: 5
SP: 5
Too Close: 3

Province-Wide Summary:

NDP: 24
SP: 25
Too Close: 9

The seats to watch are the following ones:

Wascana Plains in Regina.
Greystone in Saskatoon
Meewasin in Saskatoon
Northwest in Saskatoon
Meadow Lake
Saskatchewan Rivers

So as polling and other data comes out, I will be applying analysis to these 9 seats. Now the Sask Party does have a small advantage in that they only have to win 5 of these seats but the NDP have to win 6 of them (to form a 30-seat majority government) but the flip side of that is that 6 of them are incumbent NDP seats and only Wascana planes and Greystone do not have the incumbent MLA running for the NDP (but new candidates) .

I am not ready to make my final prediction about who is going to win the election yet, but I will say this: IT WILL BE CLOSE.

either side will be racking up an impressive win here, either the NDP will squeek through again with a small majority, or the Sask Party will manage to edge out enough to form the government by a couple of seats.

If the Liberals were at ALL competative, I would actualy predict a minority government again (like in 1999) but with the possible exception of Meewasin, they cannot win any seats so that probability is out.

It is going to be an exciting election, so stay tuned. (Oh yeah, my prediction for the call of the election is on the 16th of October so we are less than two weeks away)