"Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true!"
-Homer J. Simpson

Tuesday, October 02, 2007

Saskatchewan Election Predictions - Part 5

This is the fifth in a series of 5 posts examining each of the 58 constituencies in the province of Saskatchewan and my analysis on the outcome of the next provincial election.

Part 1 - The South

Sask Party: 9
NDP: 2

Part 2 - Regina

NDP: 10
SP: 0
Too Close: 1

Part 3 - Central Saskatchewan

NDP: 0
SP: 9
Too Close: 2

Part 4 - Saskatoon

NDP: 7
SP: 2
Too Close: 3

Part 5 - The North

Traditionaly a strong area for the NDP, with the two northern-most seats being rock solid bastions of NDP support.

1. Lloydminster

Margin of Victory for SP (2003): 1%

Now this one is very interesting, the raw vote difference was 64 votes in 2003, but there was very low turnout on the Onion Lake reserve. Interestingly enough, the NDP candidate is from that reserve (with over 1000 voters). Let's say that only 75% of the people who voted NDP last time do again, (a huge drop - over 10% in the popular vote) and then lets say the NDP candidate gets 50% of the voters in Onion lake to the polls. The NDP would then win quite handily. At the very least, this seat is far to close to call

Prediction: To Close to Call

2. Cut-Knife Turtleford

Margin of Victory for SP: 10%

This will remain Sask Party

3. Rostern Shellbrook

Margin of Victory for SP: 14%

This will remain Sask Party

4. Martinsville

Margin of Victory for SP: 30%

This will remain Sask Party

5. Batoche

Margin of Victory for SP: 7%

I know that NDP types are saying that this will be a possible pick-up for them based on their strong candidate (the son of the former MP from the area) . I think they may improve their share of the popular vote but 7% in a tough year is a lot of ground to make up. For the time being I am going to have to concede this seat to the SP.

Prediction: SP Hold.

6. Prince Albert Northcote

Margin of Victory for NDP: 30%

This will be and NDP hold. Both the Prince Albert seats have new candidates for the NDP and the results are bound to not be quite as decisive as last time. But PA has been rock-solid for the NDP for almost 3 decades now and with 30% leads (and absolute majorities) in both seats, both are staying orange on election night.

Prediction: NDP Hold

7. Prince Albert Carlton

Margin of Victory for SP: 30%

This will remain an NDP hold. See above.

8. Sask Rivers

Margin of Victory for NDP: 8%

The Sask Party has obviously targeted this seat. However, keep in mind that not only did the NDP MLA take this seat away from the Sask Party last time due to hard work and on-the-ground campaigning, but since then has become a cabinet minister that by all accounts has worked very hard for his riding. Also the SP decision to oppose the pulp mill deal is killing them in this seat. I am going to mark it as to close to call for the time being, but I would not be at all surprised if this was an NDP win on election night.

Prediction: To Close to Call

9. Carrot-River Valley

Margin of Victory for SP: 4%

This will remain Sask Party, but probably just barley, they did the smart thing and got rid of their biggest liability, the Sask Party incumbent, who kept trying to run in other seats and never showed up in the legislature. Flooding has also hurt the NDP in this area. All of this being said, if it looks for sure that the NDP is going to form government, this is a seat that could move.

Prediction: Weak Sask Party.

10. Meadow Lake

Margin of Victory for NDP: 6%

This was probably the best chance that the SP hadfor a pick-up in the whole province. However, they keep nominating bad people. Their first candidate resigned in a cloud of suspicion and their new candidate is the only Conservative incumbent MP in the country to lose to a Liberal in the 2006 election campaign. He has also referred to First Nations as "Banana Republics" which isn't going to be an asset for him in a seat that has 8 or 9 reserves. This should be a SP pick-up but due to their bungling, I am marking it as too close to call.

Prediction: To Close to Call

11. The Battlefords

Margin of victory by NDP: 20%

Without a strong Liberal candidate (like the incumbent in 2003) this seat gets even better for the NDP.

This will be an NDP hold.

12. Athabasca

Margin of Victory for NDP: 50% (Yes, that's right, the NDP got 70% of the vote)

This will remain NDP

13. Cumberland

Margin of Victory for NDP: 48% (Told you the north was solid)

This will remain NDP

Part 5 Summary:

NDP: 5
SP: 5
Too Close: 3

To-Date Summary:
NDP: 24
SP: 25
Too Close: 9

Check back for the full summary and anlaysis