"Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true!"
-Homer J. Simpson

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Saskatchewan Election Predictions - Part 1

This will be the first in a series of 5 posts examining each of the 58 constituencies in the province of Saskatchewan and my analysis on the outcome of the next provincial election.

Part 1 - The South

Overall the souther seats in the province are rock-solid Sask Party seats. There is not much evidence that is going to change in the next election.

1: Cypress Hills

Margin of victory for SP: 45%

This will remain SP

2: Wood River

Margin of victory for SP: 30%

This will remain SP

3: Weyburn Big-Muddy

Margin of Victory (2003) for SP: 5%

Of course the SP did much better in the by-election but I would be very surprised if they held those numbers in a general election. That being said, I would also be pretty surprised if the vote count changed so much that the Sask Party lost the seat.

Prediction: Sask Party

4: Estevan

Margin of victory for SP: 20%

This will remain SP

5: Cannington

Margin of victory for SP: 50%

This will remain SP

6: Swift Current

Margin of victory for SP: 22%

This will remain SP

7: Thunder Creek

Margin of victory for SP: 23%

Now this seat will be interesting as Rick Swenson, the leader of the PC party, will almost certainly be running here. This will no doubt take some votes away from the Sask Party candidate. That being said, I doubt it will take 23% of the vote away.

Prediction: Sask Party.

8: Moose Jaw Wakamow

Margin of victory for the NDP: 32%

This will remain NDP

9: Moose Jaw North

Margin of victory for the NDP: 23%

This normally would be a slam dunk for the NDP but there is some issue with the MLA from this riding having stepped down from cabinet in the spring. That being said, he has been the MLA for 20 years and the NDP have always gotten over 20% margin of victory here so I am safe in predicting an NDP hold.

Prediction: NDP

10: Indian-Head Milestone

Margin of victory for SP: 10%

This is something of a swing seat but the incumbent is a fairly high-profile Sask Party MLA and the trend in the area is twards the SP so it is reasonable to assume they will keep this seat.

Prediction: Sask Party.

11: Moosomin

Margin of victory for SP: 29%

This will remain SP


Sask Party: 9
NDP: 2

Check back tomorrow for Part 2: Regina.