More Lingenfelter speculation

So there is more speculation about a return of Dwain Lingenfelter as the next leader of the Saskatchewan NDP. Now the newspapers are in on the act.

I found this comment particularly interesting:

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at a time when Calvert can count his remaining months as party leader on his fingers

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Really, with the latest poll results? I'm not sure this is the case.

That being said, yes there is talk all over the party about who the next leader is going to be. And yes, there are a group of people pushing for Link. Let me quote from my previous comments

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Pros: Ability to raise a lot of money, supposedly a pretty good network still for not having lived in the province for years, possible appeal to the business community, name recognition.

Cons: First elected in the 70's (Doesn't exactly reek of renewal). Perceived as "right-wing" in the party and therefore might have trouble winning, has been out-of-province for over a decade.

Analysis: Dwain would no doubt be a strong contender if he ran. He might even have a shot at winning. That being said, other than a couple of vocal MLA's and some back room hacks from the early 90's, who is talking about this guy? I haven't met any rank and file party members who support him. I am told the support it there, but I haven't seen it in person.

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And in the comments I elaborated:

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And as for the "Duane Train" I would love to know which MLA's are on it. I can guess at a couple, such as Kevin Yates and maybe Ron Harper and Kim Trew, but of the big boys and girls? Higgins, Atkinson, Quenell, McCall, Taylor, Belanger, or any of the new three? [I would be surprised]
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Again, what does a guy who was elected 30 years ago bring in terms of renewal? Nothing.

What is his vision? How will he deal with the environment, or technology, just to name two issues that have changed dramatically in the 8 years since he was last an MLA?
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In my opinion there is a generational shift happening in politics right now. Brad Wall is actually a part of that as one of his strengths is his relative youth.

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This is similar to some of the points in the news story:

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Ensconced for the past eight years in his role as vice-president, government relations, for Calgary-based Nexen Inc., why Lingenfelter would give up the perks of an interesting and well-paying job with global travel to rebuild a party on the decline is a big question.

Moreover, working for an Alberta-based private oil company isn't exactly the base from which to relaunch his former 20-year career as an elected Saskatchewan New Democrat.

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Certainly, his support for Jim Dinning in the Alberta Conservative leadership race last year and his lobbying for nuclear power in Saskatchewan (something that didn't exactly endear him to his successor as deputy premier, Clay Serby, and others in the hierarchy of Lorne Calvert's NDP government) didn't seem especially helpful.

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They also say that he wouldn't be afraid to take on issues that the Saskatchewan NDP hasn't been addressing, like the air pollution from the Alberta oilsands being dumped on Saskatchewan or even Boyd's suggestion that the province can't touch oil royalty rates for 12 or 16 years.

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The way I see it, Link has three big problems. One is that he is viewed as on the "right" of the party, which makes it a bit difficult to win the support of a left-wing social-democratic party for leader. Particularly given that the party's membership is down to the core base, the true believers right now.

Now this could be overcome two ways, either run on a left-wing platform (which might be difficult) or sell a lot of memberships to people to come on to support him. This second one might work to win the race, but it also might fracture the party. I know of at least three high-profile members of the party (not MLA's but elected to serve in some capacity) who would quit the party if Link was leader. I know of a few other left-wing rank-and-file types who would "go green" or otherwise leave if Link was leader. It is hard to know how widespread this effect is, but it might prove to be a problem. (Personaly, I have a great deal of sympathy for this position, as I have a feeling it might apply to me as well ;-)

The second biggest stumbling block (and it is somewhat related to the first) is that Link has a severe credibility problem on the Green Issue. The environment is becoming more and more of a core issue for new Democrats (particularly the younger ones) and a "Brad Wall Lite" pro-nuclear, pro oil company leader is definitely NOt wanted by a pretty large section of the party. Again, this be overcome with the same soulutions as mentioned earlier, with the same problems.

The third issue is the "generation change" issue. Again, I am note sure what a politician who was first elected before some of the current MLAs were born brings to the table in terms of renewal. I have heard that Louise Simard was approaching people to dicuss her possible run and although she recived a decent reception, the number one objection she found was "it's time for a generational change." If that applied to her, then it applies to Link in spades.

In other words, if Link wants to be taken seriously and not risk splitting the party for his own gains (by just signing up instant members, who will disappear right after the leadership race) then he needs to do a couple of things:

1) Articulate a clear vision on the environment that is not "Brad Wall" light

2) Showcase some other left-wing social plans

3) Develop a leadership team that includes a number of people under the age of 30. Have a solid plan for attracting and retaining some youth to the party.

If those conditions were met then Link just might win this whole thing and have an intact party at the end to boot. Without at least some of those conditions, well, there is going to be a problem of him, either before or after the vote.

Saskatchewan NDP Leadership Anaysis

So talk of leadership is once again in the air in Saskatchewan. The liberals are desperate:

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With $10,000 in the bank and a Yamaha Road Star motorcycle to get around, Ryan Bater has launched a no-frills campaign to lead the Saskatchewan Liberal party.Bater, the 30-year-old general manager of the Battlefords Regional Economic Development Authority, is the first to declare his candidacy, two months before the deadline.

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And there is the inevitable speculation about the NDP side:

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That means most of the leadership speculation is now circulating around young, current NDP caucus members including Warren McCall, Cam Broten and even Deb Higgins, though some NDP insiders say selecting a younger, lower-profile leader is pretty much an admission the party can't win in 2011.

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Actually Mr. Mandryk, keeping Calvert would be the admission that we can't win, not moving on to someone new - that shows the NDP thinks there IS a chance. Mind you, the view from up Mandryk's ass (where his head is) is by definition somewhat stunted.

So here is a run-down of the all the rumors of leadership candidates that are floating around and the pros and cons of each. There is (and never has been) a perfect candidate and all the potential people have both pros and cons.


Dwain Lingenfelter

Pros: Ability to raise a lot of money, supposedly a pretty good network still for not having lived in the province for years, possible appeal to the business community, name recognition.

Cons: First elected in the 70's (Doesn't exactly reek of renewal). Perceived as "right-wing" in the party and therefore might have trouble winning, has been out-of-province for over a decade.

Analysis: Dwain would no doubt be a strong contender if he ran. He might even have a shot at winning. That being said, other than a couple of vocal MLA's and some back room hacks from the early 90's, who is talking about this guy? I haven't met any rank and file party members who support him. I am told the support it there, but I haven't seen it in person.


Louise Simard

Pros: Woman, Intellectual, name recognition.

Cons: Shut down 52 rural hospitals, has been out-of-province for over a decade. First elected in 1991.

Analysis: I have never met Ms. Simard, so it is difficult for me to comment, but I know a number of people in the party who speak pretty highly of her. I am told she approaching people about a possible Leadership bid but has not made up her mind to run yet.


Nettie Wiebe

Pros: Woman, Intellectual, name recognition, Placed third last time, viewed as on the "left".

Cons: Never been elected even after running 3 times (Federally), has never even ran provincially, viewed as on the "left"

Analysis: Nettie has a strong following and, as she showed last time, would make a credible run. I think her star has sunk a little since then and there is no indication that she would run again as from all accounts she is focused on federal politics now.


Maynard Sonntag

Pros: Name recognition, ran last time, rural candidate.

Cons: Did not win his seat int he last election, did not do well last time.

Analysis: I have head from a couple of people that Maynard is definitely in the race, and have heard from others that he is just thinking about it. My guess would be that he will run, but I am doubtful that he can win.


Warren McCall

Pros: Young, viewed as on the "left", strong party background

Cons: Not well known outside Regina, not the strongest public speaker (but this could be overcome), viewed as on the "left"

Analysis: Warren is probably the strongest "young" contender as a sitting member of caucus for more than 7 months. His strong party background is a plus as well. That being said, I would be fairly surprised if he ran this time around.


Deb Higgins

Pros: Woman, ties to organized labour, Good performer in the House, from outside Regina/Saskatoon, first elected in 1999 (to replace Calvert, interestingly enough)

Cons: Ties to organized labour

Analysis: Deb is a strong contender and if she can use her ties to labour to sign up members that would be a powerful advantage. She is liked by most members of the party and is a good performer in the House. She also has executive experience in a few different Cabinet posts. I think Deb is one of the front-runners out of the current caucus if she decides to run.


Cam Broten

Pros: Young

Cons: Young

Analysis: Cam is by all accounts one of the rising stars of the NDP, but he has only been an MLA for 7 months. He may run to get his name out there for next time, but I would be surprised if he could win it. Keep a close eye on him for next time, however.


Pat Atkinson

Pros: Woman, well-liked by a large group in the party

Cons: First elected in 86, not well liked by a large group in the party.

Anaysis: Pat is a polarizing figure in the NDP, you either really like her or you really don't like her, there is no real middle ground. I will be surprised if she doesn't run, but I would also be surprised if she won.


Frank Quennell

Pros: Intelligent and Funny (in a sarcastic way), perceived as one of the better cabinet ministers, first elected in 2003

Cons: Lack of Charisma

Analysis: If Frank ran, he would have to try to persuade people that he could fill the "Allen Blakeney" shoes. Blakeny was very smart and had little personal charisma. That being said, Blakeney was a great premier.....


Eric Cline

Pros: Fantastic House performer, great cabinet minister, very well-spoken and hard worker.

Cons: Perceived as on the "right" of the party. Would take a hit for having sat out the 07 election.

Anaysis: Eric would also be a strong contender if he ran, but by all accounts he is not interested.


Andrew Tompson

Pros: Decent house performance, good cabinet minister by all accounts.

Cons: Disliked by many in the party. Doesn't live in the province, would take a hit for having sat out the 07 election.

Analysis: I will be very surprised if he ran.


Yens Peterson

Pros: Young, Hard Worker, President of the Party

Cons: Didn't win his seat in the last election, not well-known.

Analysis: Yens has been impressing party members all over the province by all accounts as one of the hardest working presidents in years. I have no idea if he would consider running for Leader but he might have a chance at attracting the establishment vote. His ability to sign up new members might be limited.


Ralph Goodale

Pros: Name recognition, lot of support from New Democrats federaly.

Cons: He is a Liberal MP, enough said.

Analysis: I would be kind of surprised if Ralph jumped ship (I think he has his eye on the Federal Leadership next time around) but I heard his name mentioned by a number of people in Regina so I am including him on my list.


Larry Hubich

Pros: Name recognition, support of the labour movement.

Cons: TOO tied to labour, no electoral experience.

Analysis: I have heard from a reliable source that Hubich is feeling out some people as to his chances should he run. I doubt he will, particularly if there are other acceptable labour candidates (such as Higgins)

EDIT: Mr. Hubich himself tells me I am wrong, I apologize and withdraw my remarks.


Pat Fiacco

Pros: Popular Mayor, name recognition.

Cons: Viewed as "far right" by many in the party, not a member (that I know of), and I don't know what his popularity outside of Regina is.

Analysis: It is not as if the NDP needs to make a breakthrough in Regina or anything, so I am not sure what the appeal of Fiacco is. Nevertheless, I have heard his name tossed around by a number of very senior party officials so I can only assume there is something there. I don't know if he is interested and I doubt very much he could win the race, but an interesting name anyway.


Others

I am also hearing rumours about some doctor in Saskatoon who's name escapes me at the moment. I have heard from the Riversdale executive up there that there is a doctor (I belive involved with the Station 20 group) that is considering running to replace Calvert both in Riversdale and possibly as leader, but I have scant information and can't even remember the name I was told.

I doubt that either Scott Banda or Joanne Crowford (who ran last time) would be interested again and I don't know if Buckley Belanger would make another run either (knowing he probably wouldn't win but again doing it for good reasons). There are also the two other newer MLA's, Trent Wotherspoon and Darcy furber and I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of them threw their hat in the ring just for name-recognition purposes.

I would also be that there is someone who will run who is not on this list (but I don't know who)

I don't know how many of these people (if any) will end up running. But I am sure of a couple of things, that there will be 4 or 5 strong candidates, and that we won't have to look around in desperation like the provincial Liberals :-)