"Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true!"
-Homer J. Simpson

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Saskatchewan Election Prediction Update

In my last pre-election post on election predictions I made the following point:

The seats to watch are the following ones:

Wascana Plains in Regina.
Greystone in Saskatoon
Meewasin in Saskatoon
Northwest in Saskatoon
Meadow Lake
Saskatchewan Rivers

I am starting to hear some rumblings from people on both sides about a couple of these seats.

In Yorkton the NDP is running a strong campaign with a lot of support for the local councilor in the city of Yorkton proper, but not so much support from the rural area. This does not bode well for the NDP in this seat as they need to at least win a couple of polls in the rural to make up for the new suburban south-east end of the city of Yorkton proper, which the Sask Party has wrapped up. I am not ready to concede this seat yet, but it is on life-support.

The flip side of that is Sask Rivers. I hear from a friend of mine in the Sask Party that they are not getting the traction they need in the seat and I also hear that the NDP campaign office opening had 800 people out. If that's true, then this seat will be an NDP hold. (Perhaps defying conventional wisdom)

I have another friend who is involved in the Greystone campaign and says that the NDP are holding all of thier support from last time in the seat. If she is not lieing to me (and I have no reason to suspect she is being untruthful) the NDP will hold Greystone.

The Liberals are cratering in Saskatoon and will be lucky to get 10% of the vote in the entire city. So unless that 10% all live in Meewassin that means that Karwacki is done for (again). If this 10% stat hold true, the NDP will actually increase their percentage win in this seat (which may be the only seat in the province where this is the case)

And, sadly, I am afraid that it is time to concede Regina Wascana Plains. It does look like this will be the most likely pickup for the Sask Party.

So here was my summary going into this post:

Province-Wide Summary:
NDP: 24
SP: 25
Too Close: 9

I am giving Regina WP to the Sask Party and I am giving Greystone and Meewasin to the NDP. Yorkton and Sask Rivers remain too close to call but leaning in particular directions and I have no new information on the rest.

New Province-Wide Summary:
NDP: 26
SP: 26
Too Close: 6

I have said one thing all along, that this election was going to be closer than a lot of people thought. These numbers are looking like that will be true.