"Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true!"
-Homer J. Simpson

Monday, November 12, 2007

Saskatchewan Cabinet Predictions

So Sean and John are starting the whole "guess who is in the new cabinet" game so I guess i will play too.

Firs off, I would agree that the cabinet will be smaller than the 16-18 of the Calvert years, but probably not as small as the 10 to 12 that John figures. I think 12-14 is the most likely.

So let's say 14 for the sake of this.

First off you need regional representation. I figure at least 2 from Regina and Saskatoon and 1from Moose Jaw and 1 from Prince Albert. Then you need your small urban's (So Estevan, Weyburn, Humboldt, Yorkton, Meadow Lake, Swift Current (obviously)) I would say you need 2-3 of those so let's say 2 other than Brad. So that is 9 all told so far.

Then you need some female representation. Luckily, you have some overlap with Regina and Humboldt out of the list above. But you are going to need more than just 2-3. I figure you need at least 5. So that puts Draude in for sure (Now we are up to 10) And you probably want Heppner in as well. Then either Wilson or Eagles

This then creates a problem. You only have 2-3 seats left for all the hardcore people from opposition. You have to include Boyd and Kravetz so that only leaves one (at best).

Let's recap:

Wall - Male - Small Urban (Swift Current)
Kravetz - Male - Rural
Hickie - Male - Prince Albert
Michelson - Male - Moose Jaw
Heppner - Female - Rural
Draude - Female - Rural
Huchinson - Male - Regina
Ross/Tell - Female - Regina
Morgan - Male - Saskatoon
Chevy/Norris/LeClerk - Male - Saskatoon [If he is smart he will pick Norris]
Harpauer - Female - Small Urban (Humboldt)
Boyd - Male - Rural
Eagles - Female - Small Urban (Estevan)

This gives you:

Small urban - 3
MJ - 1
PA - 1
Sasktoon - 2
Regina - 2
Rural 4

Male - 8
Female - 5

He could easily fit a rural female (Nadine Wilson) in there but that is the only easy demographic fit.

But look at who is being left out:

Don McMorris
Dan D'Autremont
Rod Gantafore
Bob Bjornerud
Wayne Elhard
Lyle Stewart

That was pretty much the front bench of the current Saskatchewan Party (Plus Chevy, Wall, Morgan and Kravetz) and he might leave Chevy out too.

Plus, do you want to leave nutjobs like Serge LeClerk and Jeremy Harrison on the outside ? (pissing inwards)

Mr. Wall is facing the first problem of moving over to government: cabinet selection.

It will be instructive to see how he handles it.

Note that this is all assuming that Wall cares about regional and gender parity, if he wants to just throw those ideas out the window then it would make his life better - in the short run. For example, I won't be surprised if some of the women that I have listed above get dropped to placate the old-boy's club.