"Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true!"
-Homer J. Simpson

Friday, November 02, 2007

My take on the recent Poll Numbers

So everyone has been carrying on about the polling numbers from Saskatchewan:

The numbers suggest the Saskatchewan Party has the support of 54.2 per cent of decided voters, the NDP with 33.7 per cent of decided voters and the Liberals far behind with 8.1 per cent.

First of all, even the media is putting an important caveat on these poll numbers:

The samples aren't quite large enough to tell us whether or not, you know, what's happening specifically in Regina and Saskatoon

Secondly, this is reminiscent of the 1999 polls that showed the NDP with a 20 point lead and we all know how that turned out.

Now, before people accuse me of covering my eyes with my hands and ignoring reality, I admit that these types of polls have some validity and things are not looking good for the NDP.

However, in Regina I will stand by my prediction that only Wascana Plains is changing hands. Saskatoon is a different story. I think Eastview and Greystone are still fine (based on my local contacts) and I have always said that Meewasin will be going NDP. However, I am prepared to concede that Sutherland may be in the too-close-to-call category.

So if the NDP lose Wascana Plains and Sutherland, and they are in trouble in Yorkton, well, then that does not bode well for them. Even if they keep Meadow Lake, Sask Rivers and pick up Lloydminster (all still in the realm of possibility) they are still a couple of seats short of government.

I think it is looking likely that the Sask Party is going to form the next government, but I will stand by my claim that the final outcome is going to be a lot tighter than people think.

I think that Lloydmister is the only seat that could change into the NDP camp and I think that Yorkton, Sutherland and Wascana Plains are likely to go Sask Party. In the too-close-to-call camp remain Greystone, Eastview, Meadow Lake and Sask Rivers, but I think the NDP can (if things break in their favor amongst the undecided) hold all 4.

So here is my updated seat range:

Sask Party: 31 - 36
NDP: 24-29
Liberals: 0

I will work on narrowing that prediction down a little before e-day

(And by the way, when David Kawarcki said during the debate that he didn't think the NDP was going to form the government, Calvert's response should have been, "You aren't even going to win your own seat, so be quiet you goof and let the adults talk")