"Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true!"
-Homer J. Simpson

Friday, November 09, 2007

Election Predictions Review

We will start with the broad predictions and work into the narrow ones:

My most recent final numbers:

Sask Party: 31 - 36
NDP: 24-29
Liberals: 0

So I was off by about 4 seats. the NDP only got 20 (but three are waiting for absentee ballots to come in) So yeah, I was wrong by less than 30 votes in three ridings.

Specific Seats that I was Right/Wrong in:

1) Moose Jaw North

I predicted an NDP hold, but the Sask Party won by 30 votes (This is one of the absentee ones)
This one was a major upset for the NDP and I did not see it coming

2) Regina Wascana Plains.

I predicted this one would switch over.

3) Regina South.

Everyone said this one would go to the Sak Party and I said no way. I was wrong. the Sask Party won by just over 200 votes. That being said, this is not a safe Sask Party seat by any stretch of the imagination.

4) Regina Qu'Appelle Valley.

This was another upset for the Sask Party. I don't think anyone really saw this one coming.

5) Regina Dewdney.

Against people's claims, I predicted an NDP hold, which turned out to be right.

6) Regina Rosemont.

John Murney claimed a Liberal pick-up, I said that was nonsense. I was right. :-)

7) Yorkton.

I conceded it part-way through the election but I thought it would be closer than it ended up being.

9) Humboldt.

I also conceded this one. And based on the polling numbers, I knew this one wasn't going to be close.

10) Saskatoon Sutherland.

I initially did not think this one would go, but then news out of Saskatoon during the campaign convinced me it was going down.

11) Saskatoon Greystone.

I was totaly wrong predicting an NDP hold here.

12) Saskatoon Eastview.

I was totaly right predicting an NDP hold here.

13) Saskatoon Meewasin.

NDP hold, I said it all along, the campaign started with Liberals saying they were going to win it and it ended with the Sask Party saying they were going to win it, but the NDP held it.

14) Saskatoon Northwest.

Conceded it to the Sask Party.

15) Batoche.

Thought it might be close, but the poll numbers meant a Sask Party hold.

16) PA Carlton.

Another upset for the NDP (But wait for the absentee ballots)

16) PA Northcote.

As predicted, NDP Hold.

17) Sask Rivers.

I thought we were going to win, but the polling numbers said otherwise. The polling numbers were right, I was wrong.

18) Battlefords.

As predicted, and NDP hold.

19) Lloydminster

I thought this one would be way closer, but the Sask Party really won this one.

20) Meadow Lake.

Wait for the recount. (But for now it looks like I was wrong)

So in conclsuion, I called the 38 easy seats right and got 12 out the next 20 right. However, in at least 3 of those there are still ballots to count that could change things and in 2 more there was a difference of less than 250 votes.

I am going to go with about 90% of my predictions were accurate, which isn't too bad. But there were some surprise upsets in PA, Regina and Moose Jaw that don't exactly make for safe seats for the Sask Party.

The election on November 7th, 2007 will be even closer than this one.