Liberal Leadership Analysis - Province by Province
I will be back tomorrow with an analysis of my estimates along with the other sites that I gathered data from and I will crown someone the best predictor so stay tuned.
For now, let's look at the data from each province:
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Newfoundland
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Winner: Rae (30%)
Good Showing: Dryden (14%), Iggy (30%)
Disappointed: Kennedy (10%), Dion (6%), Brison (0%)
Well, if you listen to Kinsella then "there's a reason why Bob Rae is strongest in Newfoundland and BC. It's because they are the furthest points from Ontario. " Funny, but I doubt it is the truth. I have to think that is is somewhat due to Allan MacEachen's support. You would have thought that some of Brison's "Atlantic Appeal" would have bled over, but nope.
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Nova Scotia
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Winner: Brison (40%)
Good Showing: Iggy (37%)
This was Brison's only source of support across the country and even then, Iggy came within 5 delegates of beating him. The rumours were that Brison had this one all sewn up and that he would get more than 3% of the total number of delegates from his strength in Nova Scotia alone according to the Halifax newspaper but that was not the case. Iggy must have a pretty good team in place here to compete with Brison.
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New Brunswick
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Winner: Iggy (34%)
Good Showing: Rae (14%)
Disappointed: Dion (14%), Brison (9.5%)
Rae gets a "good showing" while Dion gets a "disappointed" for the same percentage because of the Francaphonie factor. Dion should have done better in NB. And again, Brison can't get traction outside his home province.
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PEI
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Winner: Rae (41%)
Good Showing: Kennedy (21%) Iggy (20%)
Disappointed: Brison (1.5%)
First province with Kennedy support (to bad it's the smallest one) and again, Brison with no cross-border support. You will note that Iggy has shown well in all the Atlantic provinces - the only candidate to do so.
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Quebec
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Winner: Iggy (38%)
Good Showing: Dion (29%) Rae (23%)
Disappointed: Kennedy (1.7%), Dryden (1.3%)
This should be more of a story than it seems to be. Iggy won Quebec. Everyone seems to be focusing on Kennedy's abysmal showing. Kinsella calls it "Kennedy’s astonishing crash-and-burn in Quebec" and Chantal Hebert says, "Gerard Kennedy's dismal absence from the Quebec radar"
means that he is out of it.
But no one points out that Iggy won the damn province - placing almost 10 points ahead of Dion. For a Liberal Party that want's to rebuild in QB, this is the sign they have been waiting for. This stat alone will result in a TON of ex officio support from MP's and assorted hangers on at convention and they have like 800 some votes so it is an important block of votes. I don't see how Iggy doesn't win at this opint base on this fact alone.
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Ontario
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Winner: Iggy (28%)
Good Showing: Kennedy (27%)
DiDisappointedRae (17%), Dion (10%)
Kennedy is a former cabinet minister who had a lot of provincial and federal MP's and MLA's elected and he had a provincial leadership organization at one point. In other words, on the ground, in the trenchs, he should have been impossible to beat.
Iggy beat him. Not by much, but be enough. This means that Iggy placed first in both Ontario and Quebec. He will get 600-700 of the 800 ex officios for this. You might as well shut 'er down, cause Iggy has won.
Rae proves that he cannot win Ontario (amongst Liberals) where he should have the best name recognition and ground support. This is a damming indictment of Rae and will cause people to look twice at supporting him on future ballots.
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Manitoba
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Winner: Rae (31.5%)
Good Showing: Iggy (23.5%) Dryden (14.8%)
Disappointed: Kennedy (14%), Dion (6%)
This was Kennedy's home province (he is from The Pas) and he placed 4th! Behind Dryden for crying out loud! This and Ontario, and Quebec spells the death knell for Kennedy.
Rae had a good on-the-ground team (I'm told) with some good endorsements to win, and Iggy stayed int he game. Dryden's wierd numbers make this less of a predictor then it otherwise would be - any thoughts on that one?
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Saskatchewan
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Winner: Iggy (33%)
Good Showing: Rae (21%) Kennedy (18%)
DisappointedDion (15%)
Dion get a disappointed because of the the David Orchard Factor. If he can't deliver here then what the hell good is he? This is my home province and everyone that I talked to said that Rae had it sewn up. Iggy for the win was a surprise to me. The guy has strength everywhere.
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Alberta
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Winner: Kennedy(28%)
Good Showing: Iggy (25%) Dion (18%)
Disappointed:Rae (9%)
Rae got spanked by Dion in Alberta? Kennedy actually won a province? The only non-surprising thing here is that Iggy is right in the mix of things. The guy has support everywhere.
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BC
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Winner: Rae (29%)
Good Showing: Kennedy (20%) Dion (18%)
Disappointed: Iggy (17%)
Here is the capper. Iggy should be disappointed with a fourth place finish where he gets over 15% of the delegates. This is a BAD showing for him? It's better than some of the above "good showings" for the others. Face it - Iggy wins.
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So after all of that exhaustive analysis, what have I come up with? Iggy winning? Big deal. That's what everyone is saying:
As Cerberus points out:
and
"He is the only candidate to show solid even leading strength in every province and territory."
"For those who repeat and repeat the cant that "Ignatieff has no room to grow", two things: (1) with such a huge lead, he doesn't have to have the "most" room to grow"
Kinsella says:
Chantal Hebert pipes in:
"Dion and Ignatieff will be the names on the final ballot. Going way, way out on a limb? Iggy has got a big, big lead."
Jeffry Simpson says the race is Iggy's to lose:
"Ignatieff will need to get a second wind to prevail but he has the advantage both quantitatively and qualitatively going into the two-month stretch to the Montreal convention."
John Ivison of the National Post agrees:
"Better still for Mr. Ignatieff, the weekend score underestimates his strength. Many ex officio delegates -- including MPs and former candidates, senators and party officials who will automatically be given voting privileges at the convention -- disproportionately favour him.His first-ballot delegate score is likely closer to 35 per cent than 30."
Don Martin trys to throw some cold water on it:
"The other obvious storyline is that Ignatieff has out-performed expectations, securing about 30% of delegates. When ex-officio members (current and former MPs and senators) and Aboriginal delegates are added, it is likely that this number will rise above 35%,"
But even he admits that the question is "who will end up becoming Ignatieff's kingmaker"
"While Ignatieff can emerge confident after pulling ahead of the pack yesterday with an 11-point lead in elected delegates at this writing, there's no room for cockiness with potent Anyone-But-Iggy forces conspiring against him."
So that's all folks. Unless something changes, My predication is Iggy is the next leader of the Liberal Party
