"Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true!"
-Homer J. Simpson

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Super Tuesday won't finish the race

There is an interesting analysis here about the proportion of delegates that the Democratic Contenders might get based on polling numbers.

The conclusion?

If these numbers hold true, and the candidates split the remaining 350 delegates which the polling doesn't account for, the Democratic primary season seems likely to continue well beyond February 5th. The fact that 20% of all delegates come in the form of superdelegates means that a candidate would have to amass more than 62% of the delegates awarded during primaries to secure the nomination without help from superdelegates.


Further complicating matters is the fact that Democrats don't hold winner-take-all primaries, making a breakaway lead in delegates by any one candidate very hard to accomplish. Moreover, Edwards continues to make clear his intentions to stay in the race through the convention -- knowing that a few hundred delegates might swing the nomination to either Clinton or Obama -- putting him in the position of "kingmaker". While serious momentum swings are possible in the lead-up to Super Tuesday which could strongly tilt the race to one candidate, there's no hint of it. And since both Clinton and Obama continue to be able to fundraising at very high levels, this race is giving every indication that we should settle in for one of the longer primaries battles in a generation.

This seems to agree with the Associated Press analysis here:

Don't look to crown any presidential nominees on Super Tuesday. The race for delegates is so close in both parties that it is mathematically impossible for any candidate to lock up the nomination on Feb. 5, according to an Associated Press analysis of the states in play that day.
We could be in for a loner race than most.